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Men's College Basketball Game on Kalshi
If Idaho wins the Cal Poly vs Idaho men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 364 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi Valley St. wins · Mississippi Valley St. | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 722,370 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Seton Hall wins · Seton Hall | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 660,176 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Charlotte wins · Charlotte | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 582,792 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Virginia wins · Virginia | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 303,453 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Portland wins · Portland | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 133,608 | Nov 12, 05:00 UTC |
| Bucknell wins · Bucknell | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 98,480 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Rice wins · Rice | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 92,224 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Eastern Washington wins · Eastern Washington | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 84,573 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Washington wins · Washington | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 50,397 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stanford wins · Stanford | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 49,877 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Hawai'i wins · Hawai'i | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 45,993 | Nov 12, 05:00 UTC |
| Oregon St. wins · Oregon St. | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 33,640 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Illinois wins · Illinois | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 19,410 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Memphis wins · Memphis | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 11,669 | Nov 13, 00:15 UTC |
| Michigan St. wins · Michigan St. | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 9,706 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Kentucky wins · Kentucky | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 6,963 | Nov 13, 02:30 UTC |
| Florida St. wins · Florida St. | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 6,423 | Nov 12, 23:00 UTC |
| Delaware St. wins · Delaware St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,970 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Duke wins · Duke | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 4,488 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Texas Tech wins · Texas Tech | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 4,300 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Detroit Mercy wins · Detroit Mercy | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,960 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Georgetown wins · Georgetown | 99¢ | 99% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,753 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| SIU Edwardsville wins · SIU Edwardsville | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,621 | Nov 16, 01:00 UTC |
| St. John's wins · St. John's | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,422 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Arkansas-Pine Bluff wins · Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,222 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Northern Kentucky wins · Northern Kentucky | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,035 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Louisiana-Monroe wins · Louisiana-Monroe | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,858 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Southern University wins · Southern University | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,855 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| NJIT wins · NJIT | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,690 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Wyoming wins · Wyoming | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 2,560 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| SMU wins · SMU | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,527 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Xavier wins · Xavier | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,274 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| VCU wins · VCU | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,150 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Duke wins · Duke | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,004 | Nov 16, 01:00 UTC |
| Providence wins · Providence | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,872 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Northern Arizona wins · Northern Arizona | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,766 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| TCU wins · TCU | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,687 | Nov 13, 02:00 UTC |
| Iowa St. wins · Iowa St. | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,673 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| North Alabama wins · North Alabama | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,671 | Nov 15, 22:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins · Oregon | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,662 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 364 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.