Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Men's College Basketball Spread on Kalshi
If Hofstra wins by more than 6.5 points in the Hofstra vs Arizona St. men's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 737 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
59% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seton Hall wins by over 4.5 points · Seton Hall wins by over 4.5 points | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 201,886 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Oregon St. wins by over 15.5 points · Oregon St. wins by over 15.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 102,595 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Seton Hall wins by over 7.5 points · Seton Hall wins by over 7.5 points | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 71,431 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Hawai'i wins by over 9.5 points · Hawai'i wins by over 9.5 points | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 57,663 | Nov 12, 05:00 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 21.5 points · Washington wins by over 21.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 53,073 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 30.5 points · Washington wins by over 30.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 47,939 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Oregon St. wins by over 12.5 points · Oregon St. wins by over 12.5 points | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 40,106 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 33.5 points · Washington wins by over 33.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 35,952 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 26.5 points · Washington wins by over 26.5 points | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 33,326 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Oregon St. wins by over 18.5 points · Oregon St. wins by over 18.5 points | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 31,273 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Seton Hall wins by over 1.5 points · Seton Hall wins by over 1.5 points | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 26,349 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Seton Hall wins by over 11.5 points · Seton Hall wins by over 11.5 points | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 23,872 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Stanford wins by over 17.5 points · Stanford wins by over 17.5 points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 20,544 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Seton Hall wins by over 27.5 points · Seton Hall wins by over 27.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,548 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Hawai'i wins by over 6.5 points · Hawai'i wins by over 6.5 points | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 14,382 | Nov 12, 05:00 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 36.5 points · Washington wins by over 36.5 points | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 13,436 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Wisconsin wins by over 23.5 points · Wisconsin wins by over 23.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 12,997 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| Stanford wins by over 24.5 points · Stanford wins by over 24.5 points | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 12,138 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Charlotte wins by over 2.5 points · Charlotte wins by over 2.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,072 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Stanford wins by over 20.5 points · Stanford wins by over 20.5 points | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 8,973 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Charlotte wins by over 7.5 points · Charlotte wins by over 7.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,732 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 11.5 points · Washington wins by over 11.5 points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 7,541 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Seton Hall wins by over 16.5 points · Seton Hall wins by over 16.5 points | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 7,513 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins by over 1.5 points · Illinois wins by over 1.5 points | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 7,279 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 10.5 points · Washington wins by over 10.5 points | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 7,202 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Oregon St. wins by over 22.5 points · Oregon St. wins by over 22.5 points | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 6,907 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Duke wins by over 6.5 points · Duke wins by over 6.5 points | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 5,978 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 40.5 points · Washington wins by over 40.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,941 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Northern Iowa wins by over 3.5 points · Northern Iowa wins by over 3.5 points | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 5,653 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 16.5 points · Washington wins by over 16.5 points | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 5,453 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Charlotte wins by over 12.5 points · Charlotte wins by over 12.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,987 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 45.5 points · Washington wins by over 45.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,851 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Illinois wins by over 2.5 points · Illinois wins by over 2.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 3,634 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Stanford wins by over 14.5 points · Stanford wins by over 14.5 points | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 3,018 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stanford wins by over 34.5 points · Stanford wins by over 34.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 3,008 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stanford wins by over 29.5 points · Stanford wins by over 29.5 points | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 2,396 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Stanford wins by over 1.5 points · Stanford wins by over 1.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,332 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Charlotte wins by over 17.5 points · Charlotte wins by over 17.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,312 | Nov 12, 02:00 UTC |
| Oregon St. wins by over 37.5 points · Oregon St. wins by over 37.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,301 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Washington wins by over 55.5 points · Washington wins by over 55.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,256 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 737 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.