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Men's College Basketball AP Poll Top Rank on Kalshi
If Florida is ranked top 25 on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Final Rankings (expected to be released on Apr 6, 2027) for the 2026-27 season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: AP College Basketball Rankings.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 6269 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Minnesota be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Minnesota | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 425 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Missouri be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Missouri | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 385 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tulsa be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Tulsa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 375 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 13 Rankings (expected to be released on Jan 25, 2027)? · Arizona | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 373 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DePaul be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 13 Rankings (expected to be released on Jan 25, 2027)? · DePaul | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 299 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dayton be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Final Rankings (expected to be released on Apr 6, 2027)? · Dayton | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 288 | Apr 20, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Final Rankings (expected to be released on Apr 6, 2027)? · Alabama | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 285 | Apr 20, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Colorado St. be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 Rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Colorado St. | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 283 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Akron be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Final Rankings (expected to be released on Apr 6, 2027)? · Akron | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 282 | Apr 20, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Notre Dame be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Notre Dame | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 282 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baylor be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 18 Rankings (expected to be released on Mar 1, 2027)? · Baylor | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 275 | Mar 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Auburn be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 18 Rankings (expected to be released on Mar 1, 2027)? · Auburn | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 275 | Mar 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Akron be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 18 Rankings (expected to be released on Mar 1, 2027)? · Akron | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 273 | Mar 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona St. be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 18 Rankings (expected to be released on Mar 1, 2027)? · Arizona St. | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 273 | Mar 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 18 Rankings (expected to be released on Mar 1, 2027)? · Arizona | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 272 | Mar 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 18 Rankings (expected to be released on Mar 1, 2027)? · Arkansas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 271 | Mar 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Grand Canyon be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Grand Canyon | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 269 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will High Point be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · High Point | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 264 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 18 Rankings (expected to be released on Mar 1, 2027)? · Alabama | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 264 | Mar 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Georgetown be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Georgetown | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 262 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Drake | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 261 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 13 Rankings (expected to be released on Jan 25, 2027)? · Alabama | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 259 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Akron be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 13 Rankings (expected to be released on Jan 25, 2027)? · Akron | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 258 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Louisville be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Louisville | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 257 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indiana be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Indiana | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 257 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dayton be a top 10 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Dayton | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 257 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Belmont be a top 10 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Belmont | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 257 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Alabama | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 257 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be a top 25 ranked team on Men's College Basketball AP Poll Final Rankings (expected to be released on Apr 6, 2027)? · Arkansas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 257 | May 02, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Davidson be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 13 Rankings (expected to be released on Jan 25, 2027)? · Davidson | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 255 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arkansas be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 13 Rankings (expected to be released on Jan 25, 2027)? · Arkansas | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 254 | Feb 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alabama be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 Rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Alabama | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 254 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Akron be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 3 Rankings (expected to be released on Nov 16, 2026)? · Akron | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 252 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Furman be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Furman | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 252 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Cincinnati | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 251 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colorado be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Colorado | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 251 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will High Point be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Final Rankings (expected to be released on Apr 6, 2027)? · High Point | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 250 | Apr 20, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Florida St. be a top 5 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Florida St. | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 249 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gonzaga be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Gonzaga | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 247 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Florida Atlantic be a top 25 ranked team on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 6 Rankings (expected to be released on Dec 7, 2026)? · Florida Atlantic | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 247 | Dec 21, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 6269 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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