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Men's College Basketball Early Season Tournament on Kalshi
If the West Virginia men's college basketball team is the 2026 Players Era 8 champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Alabama · Alabama | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 96 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southwest Maui Invitational champion: Arizona · Arizona | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 16 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 8 champion: Houston · Houston | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 10 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Michigan · Michigan | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 7 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 8 champion: West Virginia · West Virginia | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 8 champion: UNLV · UNLV | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 8 champion: Rutgers · Rutgers | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 8 champion: Notre Dame · Notre Dame | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 8 champion: Kansas · Kansas | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 8 champion: Florida · Florida | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 8 champion: Auburn · Auburn | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southwest Maui Invitational champion: Washington · Washington | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southwest Maui Invitational champion: VCU · VCU | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southwest Maui Invitational champion: Providence · Providence | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southwest Maui Invitational champion: Ole Miss · Ole Miss | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southwest Maui Invitational champion: Colorado St. · Colorado St. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southwest Maui Invitational champion: Clemson · Clemson | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Southwest Maui Invitational champion: BYU · BYU | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Texas Tech · Texas Tech | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Tennessee · Tennessee | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: TCU · TCU | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: St. John's · St. John's | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: San Diego St. · San Diego St. | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Oregon · Oregon | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Miami (FL) · Miami (FL) | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Maryland · Maryland | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Louisville · Louisville | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Kansas St. · Kansas St. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Iowa St. · Iowa St. | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Gonzaga · Gonzaga | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Creighton · Creighton | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Players Era 16 champion: Baylor · Baylor | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 13, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.