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Women's College Basketball Spread on Kalshi
If USC wins by more than 4.5 points in the Charleston vs USC women's college basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 198 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Canyon wins by over 7.5 points · Grand Canyon wins by over 7.5 points | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 8,936 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 12.5 points · Oregon wins by over 12.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 2,412 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 8.5 points · Oregon wins by over 8.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,584 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Grand Canyon wins by over 12.5 points · Grand Canyon wins by over 12.5 points | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,032 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 3.5 points · Oregon wins by over 3.5 points | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 590 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 15.5 points · Oregon wins by over 15.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 524 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Grand Canyon wins by over 2.5 points · Grand Canyon wins by over 2.5 points | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 418 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Grand Canyon wins by over 1.5 points · Grand Canyon wins by over 1.5 points | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 371 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Grand Canyon wins by over 17.5 points · Grand Canyon wins by over 17.5 points | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 221 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Grand Canyon wins by over 22.5 points · Grand Canyon wins by over 22.5 points | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 68 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Bowling Green wins by over 2.5 points · Bowling Green wins by over 2.5 points | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 52 | Nov 12, 16:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 22.5 points · Oregon wins by over 22.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 40 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 18.5 points · Oregon wins by over 18.5 points | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 23 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| McNeese wins by over 1.5 points · McNeese wins by over 1.5 points | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 20 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Tennessee wins by over 40.5 points · Tennessee wins by over 40.5 points | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 8 | Nov 12, 23:30 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 27.5 points · Oregon wins by over 27.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Oregon wins by over 32.5 points · Oregon wins by over 32.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| USC wins by over 4.5 points · USC wins by over 4.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 47.5 points · USC wins by over 47.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 42.5 points · USC wins by over 42.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 37.5 points · USC wins by over 37.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 33.5 points · USC wins by over 33.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 29.5 points · USC wins by over 29.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 26.5 points · USC wins by over 26.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 23.5 points · USC wins by over 23.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 20.5 points · USC wins by over 20.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 17.5 points · USC wins by over 17.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 13.5 points · USC wins by over 13.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| USC wins by over 9.5 points · USC wins by over 9.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| Charleston wins by over 1.5 points · Charleston wins by over 1.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 03:30 UTC |
| Grand Canyon wins by over 27.5 points · Grand Canyon wins by over 27.5 points | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Wyoming wins by over 6.5 points · Wyoming wins by over 6.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| Wyoming wins by over 1.5 points · Wyoming wins by over 1.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| UT Arlington wins by over 7.5 points · UT Arlington wins by over 7.5 points | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| UT Arlington wins by over 3.5 points · UT Arlington wins by over 3.5 points | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| UT Arlington wins by over 27.5 points · UT Arlington wins by over 27.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| UT Arlington wins by over 22.5 points · UT Arlington wins by over 22.5 points | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| UT Arlington wins by over 17.5 points · UT Arlington wins by over 17.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| UT Arlington wins by over 13.5 points · UT Arlington wins by over 13.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
| UT Arlington wins by over 10.5 points · UT Arlington wins by over 10.5 points | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 13, 01:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 198 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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