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Women's College Volleyball Match on Kalshi
If Auburn wins the Auburn vs Alabama women's college volleyball match originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026 at 9:00 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, Fox Sports, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
56%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
87% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 56¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.54 | 57.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh wins · Pittsburgh | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,377 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Notre Dame wins · Notre Dame | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,816 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Auburn wins · Auburn | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Alabama wins · Alabama | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins · Minnesota | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Indiana wins · Indiana | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 14, 01:00 UTC |
| Ohio State wins · Ohio State | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Michigan wins · Michigan | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Maryland wins · Maryland | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Penn State wins · Penn State | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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