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Norwegian Cruise Line KPI on Kalshi
If Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. reports Above 990000 passengers carried in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
73% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1070 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1070 thousand | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 3,122 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1030 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1030 thousand | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 732 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1330 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1330 thousand | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 198 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1100 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1100 thousand | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 198 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1020 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1020 thousand | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 138 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1090 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1090 thousand | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 132 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1080 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1080 thousand | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 132 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1060 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1060 thousand | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 132 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1050 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1050 thousand | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 132 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report above 1040 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1040 thousand | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 132 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 990 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 990 thousand | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 100 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 1000 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1000 thousand | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 100 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. report Above 1010 thousand passengers carried in Q1 2027? · Above 1010 thousand | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | Aug 31, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.