What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 66¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.19.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 68% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 66%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will NDAA become law? on Kalshi

If legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: White House, Library of Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

66%

Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

68% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
66¢ (now)	1.6¢	$1.19	67.6%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,760	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 15, 2026? · Before Dec 15, 2026	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	2,478	Dec 15, 15:00 UTC
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	32%	514	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Dec 25, 2026? · Before Dec 25, 2026	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	68%	499	Dec 25, 15:00 UTC
Will legislation designated as, or substantively serving as, the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2027 by authorizing national defense programs or defense policy for that fiscal year become law before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	408	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.