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NDQDIRY on Kalshi
If the Nasdaq 100 index value on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST is above 42000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: For example, Google Finance.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 17 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 28000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 28,000 or above | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 12,756 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 26000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 26,000 or above | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 10,307 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 29000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 29,000 or above | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 8,899 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 27000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 27,000 or above | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 8,784 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 33000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 33,000 or above | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 7,010 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 31,000 or above | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 6,969 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 30,000 or above | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 5,283 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 32000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 32,000 or above | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 4,237 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 34000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 34,000 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,622 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 42000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 42,000 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,927 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 35000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 35,000 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 910 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 36000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 36,000 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 886 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 38000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 38,000 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 631 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 37000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 37,000 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 335 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 40000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 40,000 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 231 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 39000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 39,000 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 57 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
| Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 41000 on Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST? · 41,000 or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2 | Dec 31, 21:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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