Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Cloudflare annual kpi on Kalshi
If Cloudflare Inc. reports Above 5500 paying customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
91% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5200 paying customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2026? · Above 5200 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 100 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5150 paying customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2026? · Above 5150 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 100 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5500 paying customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2026? · Above 5500 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5450 paying customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2026? · Above 5450 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5400 paying customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2026? · Above 5400 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 0 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5350 paying customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2026? · Above 5350 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5300 paying customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2026? · Above 5300 | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 0 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Cloudflare Inc. report Above 5250 paying customers with over $100k arr in fiscal 2026? · Above 5250 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | May 06, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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