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New Glenn on Kalshi
If Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket has launched from the launch pad before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bloomberg, Blue Origin.
Market says (typical open contract)
29%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
58% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $2.49 | 30.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Jan 2027? · Before 2027 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 49,696 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Dec 2026? · Before December | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,951 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Feb 2027? · Before Feb 2027 | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 6,517 | Feb 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Apr 2027? · Before Apr 2027 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 5,366 | Apr 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch before Mar 2027? · Before Mar 2027 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 4,778 | Mar 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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