What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.42.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Next Defense Sec on Kalshi

If the next new Secretary of Defense before Jan 20, 2029 is Dan Sullivan, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, White House, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

4% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
2¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.43	2.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · No other person	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	19,654	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Ron DeSantis	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	16,938	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Dan Driscoll	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	6,840	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Mike Waltz	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,216	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Tom Cotton	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,994	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Dan Sullivan	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	2,700	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Elbridge Colby	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	2,217	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Mike Pompeo	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	4%	2,106	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Mike Rogers	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,660	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Steve Feinberg	5¢	5%	0.4¢	—	11%	1,363	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Wesley Hunt	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,184	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Joni Ernst	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	1,106	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Tulsi Gabbard	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	962	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Christopher Miller	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	495	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Trae Stephens	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	260	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Mike Gallagher	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	170	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Keith Kellogg	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	74	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC
Who will be Trump's next Secretary of Defense? · Bill Hagerty	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	31	Jan 20, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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