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Next European Central Bank President on Kalshi
If Pablo Hernández de Cos formally holds the position of President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: European Central Bank.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pablo Hernández de Cos be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028? · Pablo Hernández de Cos | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,779 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will François Villeroy de Galhau be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028? · François Villeroy de Galhau | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,481 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Klaas Knot be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028? · Klaas Knot | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 1,149 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joachim Nagel be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028? · Joachim Nagel | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 901 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Fabio Panetta be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028? · Fabio Panetta | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 706 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Olli Rehn be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028? · Olli Rehn | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 688 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nadia Calviño be the next President of the European Central Bank before Jan 1, 2028? · Nadia Calviño | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 688 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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