Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Next Prime Minister of Israel on Kalshi
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Amir Ohana, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Naftali Bennett | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 43,490 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Gadi Eisenkot | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 24,948 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Israel Katz | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 17,999 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Itamar Ben-Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Itamar Ben-Gvir | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 12,786 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yariv Levin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 8,542 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Avigdor Lieberman | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,317 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Bezalel Smotrich | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,919 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yair Lapid | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,847 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yoav Gallant be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yoav Gallant | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,105 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Benny Gantz | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,596 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yossi Cohen | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 4,167 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yair Golan | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,656 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Amir Ohana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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