What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 55¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.57.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 57% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 55%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Another state bans or pauses police ALPR camera use on Kalshi

If a U.S. state other than Texas, Florida or Rhode Island has banned, suspended or paused law enforcement use of Flock Safety or other automated license plate reader cameras after Issuance and before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Guardian, CBC, ABC, South China Morning Post, The Wall Street Journal, The Information, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Fox News, Reuters, ABC News Australia, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

55%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

90% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
55¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.57	56.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that a U.S. state other than Texas, Florida or Rhode Island has banned, suspended or paused law enforcement use of Flock Safety or other automated license plate reader cameras before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	1,417	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that a U.S. state other than Texas, Florida or Rhode Island has banned, suspended or paused law enforcement use of Flock Safety or other automated license plate reader cameras before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	55¢	55%	1.7¢	—	90%	340	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will it be reported by a Source Agency that a U.S. state other than Texas, Florida or Rhode Island has banned, suspended or paused law enforcement use of Flock Safety or other automated license plate reader cameras before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	47%	143	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.