What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Player Next Team on Kalshi

If T.J. Watt's next team is Washington before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 290 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team? · Retires / No Team	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	4,075,620	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Stays with Las Vegas or Retires	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	551,780	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team? · Pittsburgh	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	488,048	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Chicago	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	367,786	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Dallas	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	343,940	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team? · Green Bay	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	340,597	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Kansas City	26¢	26%	1.3¢	—	51%	332,904	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Baltimore	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	263,669	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Philadelphia	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	223,971	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Minnesota	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	185,098	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Stays with Miami or Retires	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	153,079	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · San Francisco	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	151,464	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Seattle	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	148,760	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Buffalo	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	115,548	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Cincinnati	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	113,655	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Detroit	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	110,569	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Buffalo	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	98,876	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Los Angeles R	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	94,784	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · New England	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	88,840	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Jacksonville	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	87,451	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · San Francisco	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	87,097	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Tampa Bay	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	86,075	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · New England	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	81,633	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Minnesota	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	80,243	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Cleveland	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	77,105	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Baltimore	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	72,721	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · New York G	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	71,736	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Los Angeles R	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	71,698	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Los Angeles C	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	68,961	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Green Bay	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	62,399	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Washington	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	59,735	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Pittsburgh	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	56,884	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Philadelphia	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	56,580	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Las Vegas	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	54,840	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · Indianapolis	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	54,786	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Houston	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	49,824	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Aaron Rodgers's next team? · Arizona	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	46,568	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Maxx Crosby's next team? · New York G	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	46,104	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
What will be Tyreek Hill's next team? · Denver	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	44,827	Dec 31, 04:59 UTC
What will be Alec Pierce's next team? · Stays with Indianapolis or Retires	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	36,392	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 290 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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