Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom on Kalshi
If Jess Phillips formally holds the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035, and is the first such subject to do so after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Prime Minister's Office, 10 Downing Street.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 29 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Shabana Mahmood | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 1,007 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Darren Jones | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 656 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Rupert Lowe | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 495 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Nigel Farage | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 189 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Kemi Badenoch | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 57 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Richard Tice be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Richard Tice | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 25 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Robert Jenrick | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 10 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Angela Rayner | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 4 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jess Phillips be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Jess Phillips | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pat McFadden be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Pat McFadden | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zia Yusuf be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Zia Yusuf | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Al Carns | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Yvette Cooper | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Wes Streeting | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Rachel Reeves | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will No new person be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · No new person | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mel Stride be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Mel Stride | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Lucy Powell | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lisa Nandy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Lisa Nandy | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Louise Haigh be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Louise Haigh | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Keir Starmer | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jonathan Reynolds be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Jonathan Reynolds | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · John Healey | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · James Cleverly | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emma Reynolds be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Emma Reynolds | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Ed Miliband | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Ed Davey | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bridget Phillipson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Bridget Phillipson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2035? · Boris Johnson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jan 08, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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