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Pro Football 4th Quarter Total on Kalshi
If Buffalo and Minnesota collectively score more than 7.5 points in the 4th Quarter (excluding overtime) of the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be over 10.5 4Q points scored? · Over 10.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,583 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will there be over 13.5 4Q points scored? · Over 13.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,444 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will there be over 7.5 4Q points scored? · Over 7.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,236 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will there be over 14.5 4Q points scored? · Over 14.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,796 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will there be over 6.5 4Q points scored? · Over 6.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,680 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will there be over 3.5 4Q points scored? · Over 3.5 points | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 884 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will there be over 24.5 4Q points scored? · Over 24.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 749 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will there be over 20.5 4Q points scored? · Over 20.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 503 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will there be over 21.5 4Q points scored? · Over 21.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 362 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will there be over 17.5 4Q points scored? · Over 17.5 points | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 295 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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