What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 56¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.54.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 58% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 56%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NFL Career Passing Yards on Kalshi

If Josh Allen records at least 89,215 career regular season passing yards before Josh Allen or any of the Source Agencies formally announce his retirement from Pro Football, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bleacher Report, Sports Illustrated, ESPN, the Governing League, Fox Sports, The Athletic.

Market says (typical open contract)

56%

Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

88% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
56¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.54	57.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Josh Allen: 70,000+ Passing Yards · 70,000+ passing yards	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	58%	53	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Josh Allen: 40,000+ Passing Yards · 40,000+ passing yards	93¢	93%	0.5¢	—	14%	10	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Patrick Mahomes: 60,000+ Passing Yards · 60,000+ passing yards	63¢	63%	1.6¢	—	74%	8	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Patrick Mahomes: 40,000+ Passing Yards · 40,000+ passing yards	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	2	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Patrick Mahomes: 70,000+ Passing Yards · 70,000+ passing yards	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	76%	0	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Josh Allen: 89,215+ Passing Yards · 89,215+ passing yards	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Josh Allen: 80,000+ Passing Yards · 80,000+ passing yards	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	0	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Josh Allen: 60,000+ Passing Yards · 60,000+ passing yards	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	88%	0	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Josh Allen: 50,000+ Passing Yards · 50,000+ passing yards	77¢	77%	1.2¢	—	46%	0	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Josh Allen: 35,000+ Passing Yards · 35,000+ passing yards	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Patrick Mahomes: 89,215+ Passing Yards · 89,215+ passing yards	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Patrick Mahomes: 80,000+ Passing Yards · 80,000+ passing yards	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	0	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC
Patrick Mahomes: 50,000+ Passing Yards · 50,000+ passing yards	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Mar 08, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.