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Division of NFL Champion on Kalshi
If a team from the NFC West division wins the Pro Football Championship in the 2026-27 Pro Football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFC West wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship · NFC West | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| NFC South wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship · NFC South | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| NFC North wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship · NFC North | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| NFC East wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship · NFC East | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| AFC West wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship · AFC West | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| AFC South wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship · AFC South | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| AFC North wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship · AFC North | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
| AFC East wins the 2027 Pro Football Championship · AFC East | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Aug 15, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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