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Pro Football Top Draft on Kalshi
If Trinidad Chambliss is drafted top 5 in the 2027 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 19 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
44% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.73 | 23.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Arch Manning be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Arch Manning | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 11,458 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jeremiah Smith be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Jeremiah Smith | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,363 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will John Mateer be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · John Mateer | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 929 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Trinidad Chambliss be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Trinidad Chambliss | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 623 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dante Moore be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Dante Moore | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 393 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jayden Maiava be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Jayden Maiava | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 214 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dylan Stewart be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Dylan Stewart | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 187 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Darian Mensah be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Darian Mensah | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 141 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Drew Mestemaker be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Drew Mestemaker | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 125 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will LaNorris Sellers be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · LaNorris Sellers | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 111 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nico Iamaleava be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Nico Iamaleava | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 104 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ryan Williams be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Ryan Williams | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 103 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Julian Sayin be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Julian Sayin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 95 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Leonard Moore be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Leonard Moore | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 59 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will CJ Carr be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · CJ Carr | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 50 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Quincy Rhodes Jr. be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Quincy Rhodes Jr. | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Seaton be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Jordan Seaton | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will DJ Lagway be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · DJ Lagway | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Cam Coleman be a top 5 draft pick in 2027? · Cam Coleman | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | May 22, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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