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Receptions Escalator on Kalshi

If Each Yes contract pays per reception by Stefon Diggs in the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026. The Yes contracts pay based on this schedule: 0 receptions, $0.0000; 1, $0.0003; 2, $0.0029; 3, $0.0098; 4, $0.0233; 5, $0.0455; 6, $0.0787; 7, $0.1250; 8, $0.1865; 9, $0.2656; 10, $0.3644; 11, $0.4850; 12, $0.6297; 13, $0.8006; 14 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
25% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
13¢ (now)0.8¢$3.0413.8%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Justin Jefferson Receptions Escalator · Justin Jefferson32¢32%1.5¢—65%6,205Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
James Cook III Receptions Escalator · James Cook III12¢12%0.8¢—25%2,060Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Aaron Jones Sr. Receptions Escalator · Aaron Jones Sr.12¢12%0.7¢—24%1,178Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
DJ Moore Receptions Escalator · DJ Moore32¢32%1.5¢—64%993Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dalton Kincaid Receptions Escalator · Dalton Kincaid13¢13%0.8¢—25%461Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Khalil Shakir Receptions Escalator · Khalil Shakir34¢34%1.6¢—68%347Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Stefon Diggs Receptions Escalator · Stefon Diggs5¢5%0.4¢—11%0Nov 15, 01:15 UTC
Malik Nabers Receptions Escalator · Malik Nabers13¢13%0.8¢—25%0Nov 15, 01:15 UTC
Isaiah Likely Receptions Escalator · Isaiah Likely8¢8%0.5¢—16%0Nov 15, 01:15 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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