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Pro Football Field Goals on Kalshi
If Washington records 4+ field goals in the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota: 3+ Field Goals · Minnesota: 3+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 52,946 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Minnesota: 4+ Field Goals · Minnesota: 4+ | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 21,043 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Buffalo: 4+ Field Goals · Buffalo: 4+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10,455 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington: 4+ Field Goals · Washington: 4+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington: 3+ Field Goals · Washington: 3+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington: 2+ Field Goals · Washington: 2+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Washington: 1+ Field Goals · Washington: 1+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G: 4+ Field Goals · New York G: 4+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G: 3+ Field Goals · New York G: 3+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G: 2+ Field Goals · New York G: 2+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| New York G: 1+ Field Goals · New York G: 1+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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