Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Pro Football First Touchdown on Kalshi
If Ben Sinnott scores the first touchdown in Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the league governing the game.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 23 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers: 1st Touchdown · Malik Nabers | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 6,982 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| No Touchdown: 1st Touchdown · No Touchdown | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,500 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Isaiah Likely: 1st Touchdown · Isaiah Likely | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 1,116 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 1st Touchdown · Jayden Daniels | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 916 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Stefon Diggs: 1st Touchdown · Stefon Diggs | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 857 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Devin Singletary: 1st Touchdown · Devin Singletary | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 580 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Austin Ekeler: 1st Touchdown · Austin Ekeler | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 547 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Luke McCaffrey: 1st Touchdown · Luke McCaffrey | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 472 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Chig Okonkwo: 1st Touchdown · Chig Okonkwo | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 438 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Rachaad White: 1st Touchdown · Rachaad White | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 295 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| NY Giants D/ST: 1st Touchdown · NY Giants D/ST | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 177 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Charlie Jones: 1st Touchdown · Charlie Jones | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| WAS Commanders D/ST: 1st Touchdown · WAS Commanders D/ST | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 37 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Gregory Desrosiers: 1st Touchdown · Gregory Desrosiers | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 33 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Ben Sinnott: 1st Touchdown · Ben Sinnott | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Darnell Mooney: 1st Touchdown · Darnell Mooney | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Theo Johnson: 1st Touchdown · Theo Johnson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Antonio Williams: 1st Touchdown · Antonio Williams | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Van Jefferson: 1st Touchdown · Van Jefferson | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jaden Bradley: 1st Touchdown · Jaden Bradley | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| John Bates: 1st Touchdown · John Bates | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jalin Hyatt: 1st Touchdown · Jalin Hyatt | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Malachi Fields: 1st Touchdown · Malachi Fields | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.