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Longest Reception on Kalshi
If DJ Moore records a longest reception of over 20.5 yards in the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson: longest reception over 24.5 yards · Justin Jefferson: over 24.5 yards | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 24,827 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Ty Johnson: longest reception over 10.5 yards · Ty Johnson: over 10.5 yards | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,180 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Addison: longest reception over 19.5 yards · Jordan Addison: over 19.5 yards | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 4,113 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| DJ Moore: longest reception over 20.5 yards · DJ Moore: over 20.5 yards | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 2,219 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| T.J. Hockenson: longest reception over 16.5 yards · T.J. Hockenson: over 16.5 yards | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,262 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| James Cook III: longest reception over 7.5 yards · James Cook III: over 7.5 yards | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,201 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Khalil Shakir: longest reception over 16.5 yards · Khalil Shakir: over 16.5 yards | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,162 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dalton Kincaid: longest reception over 18.5 yards · Dalton Kincaid: over 18.5 yards | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 1,080 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dawson Knox: longest reception over 9.5 yards · Dawson Knox: over 9.5 yards | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 728 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: longest reception over 7.5 yards · Aaron Jones Sr.: over 7.5 yards | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 294 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Keon Coleman: longest reception over 16.5 yards · Keon Coleman: over 16.5 yards | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 263 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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