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Passing Yards Protected on Kalshi
If Jayden Daniels records 325+ passing yards in the Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
10%
Median YES price across 28 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
20% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.15 | 10.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen: 200+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 200+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 22,367 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 225+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 225+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 21,445 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 200+ passing yards (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 200+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 21,368 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 225+ passing yards (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 225+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,466 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 175+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 175+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,162 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 150+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 150+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 7,042 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 175+ passing yards (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 175+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,642 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 150+ passing yards (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 150+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,168 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 250+ passing yards (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 250+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,415 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 250+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 250+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,993 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 300+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 300+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 611 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 275+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 275+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 517 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 300+ passing yards (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 300+ | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 393 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 350+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 350+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 256 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 350+ passing yards (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 350+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 200 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 275+ passing yards (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 275+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 194 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 325+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 325+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 20 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 325+ passing yards (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 325+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 300+ passing yards (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 300+ | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 275+ passing yards (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 275+ | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 250+ passing yards (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 250+ | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 225+ passing yards (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 225+ | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 200+ passing yards (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 200+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 175+ passing yards (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 175+ | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 150+ passing yards (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 150+ | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Jayden Daniels: 125+ passing yards (Protected) · Jayden Daniels: 125+ | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 325+ passing yards (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 325+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 375+ passing yards (Protected) · Josh Allen: 375+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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