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Pro Football Playoff Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Washington is one of the Pro Football playoff qualifiers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New York G be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · New York G | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 466,259 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Las Vegas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Las Vegas | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 337,596 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dallas be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Dallas | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 298,606 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New York J be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · New York J | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 230,602 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cleveland be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Cleveland | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 195,268 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pittsburgh be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Pittsburgh | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 169,515 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Philadelphia | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 150,091 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Chicago be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Chicago | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 145,384 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles R be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Los Angeles R | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 143,956 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Minnesota be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Minnesota | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 143,826 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Miami be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Miami | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 135,684 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New Orleans be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · New Orleans | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 129,813 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Houston be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Houston | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 128,869 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arizona be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Arizona | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 124,948 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Green Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Green Bay | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 119,240 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Los Angeles C be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Los Angeles C | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 105,578 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Atlanta be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Atlanta | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 97,945 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Washington be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Washington | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 90,512 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Carolina be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Carolina | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 85,384 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tampa Bay be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Tampa Bay | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 78,438 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will New England be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · New England | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 66,691 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will San Francisco be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · San Francisco | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 59,801 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baltimore be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Baltimore | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 56,979 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Seattle be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Seattle | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 55,976 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jacksonville be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Jacksonville | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 49,729 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kansas City be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Kansas City | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 47,299 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denver be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Denver | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 45,726 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Buffalo be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Buffalo | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 43,723 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tennessee be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Tennessee | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 42,758 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Detroit be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Detroit | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 34,131 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Indianapolis be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Indianapolis | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 32,820 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Cincinnati be one of the 2026-27 Pro Football playoff qualifiers? · Cincinnati | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 23,198 | Jan 25, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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