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Pro Football Race to Points on Kalshi
If Washington is the first to score 35 points in Washington vs New York G Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
17%
Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will neither team reach 35 points? · Neither team | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,605 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will neither team reach 28 points? · Neither team | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 8,249 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Buffalo reach 28 points first? · Buffalo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,893 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Buffalo reach 35 points first? · Buffalo | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,866 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Minnesota reach 35 points first? · Minnesota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,277 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Minnesota reach 28 points first? · Minnesota | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 680 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Will neither team reach 14 points? · Neither team | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 506 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Washington reach 35 points first? · Washington | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will New York G reach 35 points first? · New York G | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 10 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will neither team reach 35 points? · Neither team | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 10 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will New York G reach 10 points first? · New York G | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 1 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Washington reach 28 points first? · Washington | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will New York G reach 28 points first? · New York G | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will neither team reach 28 points? · Neither team | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Washington reach 21 points first? · Washington | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will New York G reach 21 points first? · New York G | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will neither team reach 21 points? · Neither team | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Washington reach 14 points first? · Washington | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will New York G reach 14 points first? · New York G | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will Washington reach 10 points first? · Washington | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
| Will neither team reach 10 points? · Neither team | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 15, 01:15 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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