What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Pro Football Player Receptions on Kalshi

If Dawson Knox records 5+ receptions in the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 145 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

6% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Justin Jefferson: 7+ receptions · Justin Jefferson: 7+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	203,226	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dawson Knox: 4+ receptions · Dawson Knox: 4+	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	83,658	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 4+ receptions · Justin Jefferson: 4+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	80,060	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 6+ receptions · Justin Jefferson: 6+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	68,222	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Khalil Shakir: 4+ receptions · Khalil Shakir: 4+	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	66,368	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 5+ receptions · Justin Jefferson: 5+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	61,427	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Aaron Jones Sr.: 2+ receptions · Aaron Jones Sr.: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	59,661	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
DJ Moore: 3+ receptions · DJ Moore: 3+	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	54,484	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
James Cook III: 2+ receptions · James Cook III: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	51,867	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Tai Felton: 1+ receptions · Tai Felton: 1+	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	50,974	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
DJ Moore: 4+ receptions · DJ Moore: 4+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	45,656	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ben Yurosek: 1+ receptions · Ben Yurosek: 1+	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	43,965	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dalton Kincaid: 4+ receptions · Dalton Kincaid: 4+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	34,897	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ty Johnson: 2+ receptions · Ty Johnson: 2+	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	32,530	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
T.J. Hockenson: 4+ receptions · T.J. Hockenson: 4+	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	29,493	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
T.J. Hockenson: 5+ receptions · T.J. Hockenson: 5+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	29,369	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dalton Kincaid: 3+ receptions · Dalton Kincaid: 3+	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	26,734	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 8+ receptions · Justin Jefferson: 8+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	25,532	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 10+ receptions · Justin Jefferson: 10+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	23,514	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ben Yurosek: 2+ receptions · Ben Yurosek: 2+	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	21,548	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ben Yurosek: 3+ receptions · Ben Yurosek: 3+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	20,139	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ty Johnson: 3+ receptions · Ty Johnson: 3+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	17,004	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Addison: 2+ receptions · Jordan Addison: 2+	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	16,383	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Addison: 4+ receptions · Jordan Addison: 4+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	14,488	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Khalil Shakir: 5+ receptions · Khalil Shakir: 5+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,353	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Addison: 3+ receptions · Jordan Addison: 3+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	12,158	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
DJ Moore: 5+ receptions · DJ Moore: 5+	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	11,013	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Aaron Jones Sr.: 3+ receptions · Aaron Jones Sr.: 3+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	10,747	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Tai Felton: 3+ receptions · Tai Felton: 3+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,834	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dalton Kincaid: 5+ receptions · Dalton Kincaid: 5+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,689	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 11+ receptions · Justin Jefferson: 11+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	9,073	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
James Cook III: 3+ receptions · James Cook III: 3+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,777	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 9+ receptions · Justin Jefferson: 9+	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	8,751	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dalton Kincaid: 6+ receptions · Dalton Kincaid: 6+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,471	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 3+ receptions · Justin Jefferson: 3+	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,329	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
James Cook III: 4+ receptions · James Cook III: 4+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,317	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Keon Coleman: 3+ receptions · Keon Coleman: 3+	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,074	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ty Johnson: 6+ receptions · Ty Johnson: 6+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,617	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Aaron Jones Sr.: 4+ receptions · Aaron Jones Sr.: 4+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	7,610	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
T.J. Hockenson: 6+ receptions · T.J. Hockenson: 6+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	6,372	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 145 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.