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Pro Football Receiving Yards on Kalshi
If Dalton Kincaid records 10+ receiving yards in the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 263 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
25% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.08 | 12.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson: 80+ receiving yards · Justin Jefferson: 80+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 288,048 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 50+ receiving yards · Justin Jefferson: 50+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 214,526 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 40+ receiving yards · Justin Jefferson: 40+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 184,989 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 100+ receiving yards · Justin Jefferson: 100+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 168,814 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 60+ receiving yards · Justin Jefferson: 60+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 165,543 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 70+ receiving yards · Justin Jefferson: 70+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 153,224 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| DJ Moore: 50+ receiving yards · DJ Moore: 50+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 129,230 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 30+ receiving yards · Justin Jefferson: 30+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 112,333 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Khalil Shakir: 40+ receiving yards · Khalil Shakir: 40+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 109,959 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dalton Kincaid: 40+ receiving yards · Dalton Kincaid: 40+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 106,674 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| James Cook III: 10+ receiving yards · James Cook III: 10+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 96,577 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: 10+ receiving yards · Aaron Jones Sr.: 10+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 95,903 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dalton Kincaid: 15+ receiving yards · Dalton Kincaid: 15+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 90,012 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| T.J. Hockenson: 20+ receiving yards · T.J. Hockenson: 20+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 81,992 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Odell Beckham Jr.: 5+ receiving yards · Odell Beckham Jr.: 5+ | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 78,687 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| DJ Moore: 30+ receiving yards · DJ Moore: 30+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 63,451 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| DJ Moore: 40+ receiving yards · DJ Moore: 40+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 63,041 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Addison: 40+ receiving yards · Jordan Addison: 40+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 61,609 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Ty Johnson: 15+ receiving yards · Ty Johnson: 15+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 56,717 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| T.J. Hockenson: 40+ receiving yards · T.J. Hockenson: 40+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 55,663 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dalton Kincaid: 30+ receiving yards · Dalton Kincaid: 30+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 54,925 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 90+ receiving yards · Justin Jefferson: 90+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 53,197 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Addison: 90+ receiving yards · Jordan Addison: 90+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 48,601 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Addison: 60+ receiving yards · Jordan Addison: 60+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 44,092 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Addison: 15+ receiving yards · Jordan Addison: 15+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 43,969 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dalton Kincaid: 25+ receiving yards · Dalton Kincaid: 25+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 42,617 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| DJ Moore: 25+ receiving yards · DJ Moore: 25+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 42,456 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Khalil Shakir: 30+ receiving yards · Khalil Shakir: 30+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 40,978 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| T.J. Hockenson: 30+ receiving yards · T.J. Hockenson: 30+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 39,450 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Khalil Shakir: 15+ receiving yards · Khalil Shakir: 15+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 39,370 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Ben Yurosek: 10+ receiving yards · Ben Yurosek: 10+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 38,990 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| DJ Moore: 20+ receiving yards · DJ Moore: 20+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 38,150 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Addison: 70+ receiving yards · Jordan Addison: 70+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 37,729 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Khalil Shakir: 60+ receiving yards · Khalil Shakir: 60+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 36,109 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Addison: 30+ receiving yards · Jordan Addison: 30+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 35,307 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: 40+ receiving yards · Aaron Jones Sr.: 40+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 33,244 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| T.J. Hockenson: 25+ receiving yards · T.J. Hockenson: 25+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 30,930 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dalton Kincaid: 20+ receiving yards · Dalton Kincaid: 20+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28,379 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Keon Coleman: 30+ receiving yards · Keon Coleman: 30+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,315 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 110+ receiving yards · Justin Jefferson: 110+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 24,127 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 263 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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