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NFL Championship Outcome on Kalshi
If the Washington Pro Football team defeats Tennessee in the 2026-27 Pro Football Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 512 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro Football Championship: Kansas City beats Chicago · Kansas City beats Chicago | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 4,035 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: San Francisco beats Buffalo · San Francisco beats Buffalo | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,595 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Buffalo beats Chicago · Buffalo beats Chicago | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,457 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Chicago beats Jacksonville · Chicago beats Jacksonville | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,419 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: San Francisco beats Kansas City · San Francisco beats Kansas City | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,249 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: San Francisco beats Jacksonville · San Francisco beats Jacksonville | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 1,092 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: San Francisco beats Denver · San Francisco beats Denver | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,086 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Buffalo beats San Francisco · Buffalo beats San Francisco | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,040 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Los Angeles R beats Buffalo · Los Angeles R beats Buffalo | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 966 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Chicago beats Cincinnati · Chicago beats Cincinnati | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 924 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Denver beats Los Angeles R · Denver beats Los Angeles R | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 876 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Chicago beats New England · Chicago beats New England | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 844 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Jacksonville beats Chicago · Jacksonville beats Chicago | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 842 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Green Bay beats Cincinnati · Green Bay beats Cincinnati | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 826 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Jacksonville beats Seattle · Jacksonville beats Seattle | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 811 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Los Angeles R beats New England · Los Angeles R beats New England | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 809 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Seattle beats Cincinnati · Seattle beats Cincinnati | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 768 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: San Francisco beats New England · San Francisco beats New England | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 766 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: New England beats San Francisco · New England beats San Francisco | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 766 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Los Angeles R beats Denver · Los Angeles R beats Denver | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 765 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Kansas City beats Los Angeles R · Kansas City beats Los Angeles R | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 765 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Kansas City beats Detroit · Kansas City beats Detroit | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 765 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Jacksonville beats Los Angeles R · Jacksonville beats Los Angeles R | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 765 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Jacksonville beats Detroit · Jacksonville beats Detroit | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 765 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Chicago beats Pittsburgh · Chicago beats Pittsburgh | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 765 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Los Angeles R beats Kansas City · Los Angeles R beats Kansas City | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 764 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Los Angeles R beats Cincinnati · Los Angeles R beats Cincinnati | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 764 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Detroit beats Cincinnati · Detroit beats Cincinnati | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 764 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Cincinnati beats Los Angeles R · Cincinnati beats Los Angeles R | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 764 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: New York G beats Baltimore · New York G beats Baltimore | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 758 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Los Angeles R beats Jacksonville · Los Angeles R beats Jacksonville | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 757 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Kansas City beats Seattle · Kansas City beats Seattle | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 744 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Kansas City beats San Francisco · Kansas City beats San Francisco | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 741 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Buffalo beats Seattle · Buffalo beats Seattle | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 734 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Jacksonville beats San Francisco · Jacksonville beats San Francisco | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 723 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Carolina beats Jacksonville · Carolina beats Jacksonville | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 714 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Buffalo beats Detroit · Buffalo beats Detroit | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 650 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Chicago beats Denver · Chicago beats Denver | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 4% | 647 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: San Francisco beats Cincinnati · San Francisco beats Cincinnati | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 647 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
| Pro Football Championship: Buffalo beats Los Angeles R · Buffalo beats Los Angeles R | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 643 | Feb 22, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 512 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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