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Receiving Yards on Kalshi
If Zay Flowers records 750+ receiving yards during the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 195 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 42¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.03 | 43.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jaylen Waddle record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaylen Waddle | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 12,614 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Emeka Egbuka record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Emeka Egbuka | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 12,128 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Malik Nabers record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Malik Nabers | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 11,310 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DJ Moore record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · DJ Moore | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 10,716 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Bowers record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Brock Bowers | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 10,377 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Jefferson record 1250+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Justin Jefferson | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 10,048 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ladd McConkey record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Ladd McConkey | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 9,680 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Parker Washington record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Parker Washington | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 8,003 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A.J. Brown record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · A.J. Brown | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 8,001 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Jefferson record 1500+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Justin Jefferson | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 7,867 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colston Loveland record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Colston Loveland | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 7,123 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rashee Rice record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Rashee Rice | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 6,683 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Wilson record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Michael Wilson | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,448 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Wilson record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Michael Wilson | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,360 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Luther Burden III record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Luther Burden III | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 5,919 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Terry McLaurin record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Terry McLaurin | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 5,901 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Parker Washington record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Parker Washington | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 5,637 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Jefferson record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Justin Jefferson | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 5,482 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jalen Coker record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jalen Coker | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 4,886 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Puka Nacua record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Puka Nacua | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 4,828 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Evans record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Mike Evans | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 4,668 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will De'Zhaun Stribling record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · De'Zhaun Stribling | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 4,630 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matthew Golden record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Matthew Golden | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 4,581 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,485 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DJ Moore record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · DJ Moore | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,439 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Zay Flowers record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Zay Flowers | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4,412 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Evans record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Mike Evans | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 4,265 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Christian Watson record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Christian Watson | 71¢ | 71% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 4,141 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ladd McConkey record 1250+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Ladd McConkey | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 4,052 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jaylen Waddle record 1250+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Jaylen Waddle | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 4,038 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DJ Moore record 1250+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · DJ Moore | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 3,973 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Isaiah Likely record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Isaiah Likely | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,914 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Quentin Johnston record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Quentin Johnston | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 3,867 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will DeVonta Smith record 1000+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · DeVonta Smith | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,675 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Terry McLaurin record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Terry McLaurin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,285 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Brock Bowers record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Brock Bowers | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3,248 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will A.J. Brown record 1250+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · A.J. Brown | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 3,243 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Adonai Mitchell record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Adonai Mitchell | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 3,171 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ladd McConkey record 1500+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Ladd McConkey | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 3,143 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Colston Loveland record 750+ receiving yards during 2026-27 Pro Football regular season? · Colston Loveland | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 3,138 | Feb 02, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 195 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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