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NFL Playoffs Seed Over/Unders on Kalshi
If the Washington Pro Football team is the #6 seed or better at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
26%
Median YES price across 32 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
51% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $2.59 | 27.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England: #5 seed or better · New England: #5 seed or better | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,267 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Green Bay: #6 seed or better · Green Bay: #6 seed or better | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 983 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Houston: #6 seed or better · Houston: #6 seed or better | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 698 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Pittsburgh: #6 seed or better · Pittsburgh: #6 seed or better | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 597 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Minnesota: #3 seed or better · Minnesota: #3 seed or better | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 286 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles R: #5 seed or better · Los Angeles R: #5 seed or better | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 211 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Cleveland: #6 seed or better · Cleveland: #6 seed or better | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 143 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| San Francisco: #2 seed or better · San Francisco: #2 seed or better | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 128 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Buffalo: #2 seed or better · Buffalo: #2 seed or better | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 98 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Atlanta: #6 seed or better · Atlanta: #6 seed or better | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 98 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Denver: #5 seed or better · Denver: #5 seed or better | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 54 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Chicago: #6 seed or better · Chicago: #6 seed or better | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 39 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Cincinnati: #6 seed or better · Cincinnati: #6 seed or better | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 33 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Washington: #6 seed or better · Washington: #6 seed or better | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 26 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Dallas: #3 seed or better · Dallas: #3 seed or better | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 15 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Kansas City: #2 seed or better · Kansas City: #2 seed or better | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 10 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Tampa Bay: #6 seed or better · Tampa Bay: #6 seed or better | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 4 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| New Orleans: #6 seed or better · New Orleans: #6 seed or better | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 4 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Carolina: #4 seed or better · Carolina: #4 seed or better | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Tennessee: #6 seed or better · Tennessee: #6 seed or better | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Seattle: #6 seed or better · Seattle: #6 seed or better | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia: #6 seed or better · Philadelphia: #6 seed or better | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| New York J: #6 seed or better · New York J: #6 seed or better | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| New York G: #6 seed or better · New York G: #6 seed or better | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Miami: #6 seed or better · Miami: #6 seed or better | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Las Vegas: #6 seed or better · Las Vegas: #6 seed or better | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles C: #6 seed or better · Los Angeles C: #6 seed or better | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Jacksonville: #4 seed or better · Jacksonville: #4 seed or better | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Indianapolis: #6 seed or better · Indianapolis: #6 seed or better | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Detroit: #6 seed or better · Detroit: #6 seed or better | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Baltimore: #3 seed or better · Baltimore: #3 seed or better | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Arizona: #6 seed or better · Arizona: #6 seed or better | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 07, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.