What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Pro Football Touchdowns on Kalshi

If Jordan Addison scores at least 3+ touchdowns in the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the Governing League.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 80 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Justin Jefferson: 1+ touchdowns · Justin Jefferson: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,134,069	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Josh Allen: 1+ touchdowns · Josh Allen: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,063,714	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Mason: 1+ touchdowns · Jordan Mason: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	827,989	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Aaron Jones Sr.: 1+ touchdowns · Aaron Jones Sr.: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	512,009	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Carson Wentz: 1+ touchdowns · Carson Wentz: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	428,968	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Odell Beckham Jr.: 1+ touchdowns · Odell Beckham Jr.: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	412,942	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
James Cook III: 2+ touchdowns · James Cook III: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	376,842	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 2+ touchdowns · Justin Jefferson: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	319,147	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
DJ Moore: 1+ touchdowns · DJ Moore: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	307,365	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dawson Knox: 1+ touchdowns · Dawson Knox: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	292,361	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Addison: 1+ touchdowns · Jordan Addison: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	255,613	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dalton Kincaid: 1+ touchdowns · Dalton Kincaid: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	254,852	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
T.J. Hockenson: 1+ touchdowns · T.J. Hockenson: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	230,892	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Josh Allen: 2+ touchdowns · Josh Allen: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	228,893	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Keon Coleman: 1+ touchdowns · Keon Coleman: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	223,020	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dawson Knox: 2+ touchdowns · Dawson Knox: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	171,837	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ty Johnson: 2+ touchdowns · Ty Johnson: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	158,357	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Khalil Shakir: 1+ touchdowns · Khalil Shakir: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	142,081	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Justin Jefferson: 3+ touchdowns · Justin Jefferson: 3+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	117,243	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ty Johnson: 1+ touchdowns · Ty Johnson: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	102,815	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Tai Felton: 1+ touchdowns · Tai Felton: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	98,319	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Gavin Bartholomew: 1+ touchdowns · Gavin Bartholomew: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	90,102	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Mason: 2+ touchdowns · Jordan Mason: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	89,749	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ben Yurosek: 1+ touchdowns · Ben Yurosek: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	83,572	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Josh Allen: 3+ touchdowns · Josh Allen: 3+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	78,468	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Ray Davis: 1+ touchdowns · Ray Davis: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	65,786	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Myles Price: 1+ touchdowns · Myles Price: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	62,160	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
MIN Vikings D/ST: 1+ touchdowns · MIN Vikings D/ST: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	55,494	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Jackson Hawes: 1+ touchdowns · Jackson Hawes: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	53,201	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Devin Singletary: 1+ touchdowns · Devin Singletary: 1+	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	50,199	Nov 15, 01:15 UTC
James Cook III: 3+ touchdowns · James Cook III: 3+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	45,700	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
DJ Moore: 2+ touchdowns · DJ Moore: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	41,529	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Odell Beckham Jr.: 2+ touchdowns · Odell Beckham Jr.: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	36,518	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
BUF Bills D/ST: 1+ touchdowns · BUF Bills D/ST: 1+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	32,149	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Dalton Kincaid: 2+ touchdowns · Dalton Kincaid: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	30,469	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Jordan Addison: 2+ touchdowns · Jordan Addison: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	30,401	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Keon Coleman: 2+ touchdowns · Keon Coleman: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	30,129	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Khalil Shakir: 2+ touchdowns · Khalil Shakir: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	29,240	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
T.J. Hockenson: 2+ touchdowns · T.J. Hockenson: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	29,193	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC
Aaron Jones Sr.: 2+ touchdowns · Aaron Jones Sr.: 2+	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	20,457	Nov 12, 01:15 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 80 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.