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Pro Football Touchdowns Protected on Kalshi
If Odell Beckham Jr. records 2+ touchdowns in the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, the Governing League.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 80 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Justin Jefferson: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 80,978 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| James Cook III: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · James Cook III: 2+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 43,306 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Josh Allen: 2+ | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 42,558 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Justin Jefferson: 2+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 34,859 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Odell Beckham Jr.: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Odell Beckham Jr.: 1+ | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 31,322 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Josh Allen: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28,950 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dawson Knox: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Dawson Knox: 1+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 26,940 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| T.J. Hockenson: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · T.J. Hockenson: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 21,940 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| DJ Moore: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · DJ Moore: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,650 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Addison: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Jordan Addison: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,881 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Keon Coleman: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Keon Coleman: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 17,619 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dawson Knox: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Dawson Knox: 2+ | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 15,750 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dalton Kincaid: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Dalton Kincaid: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,826 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Mason: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Jordan Mason: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,600 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| James Cook III: 3+ touchdowns (Protected) · James Cook III: 3+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 9,670 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| T.J. Hockenson: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · T.J. Hockenson: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 9,032 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Gavin Bartholomew: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Gavin Bartholomew: 1+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 7,110 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Carson Wentz: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Carson Wentz: 1+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 6,533 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Khalil Shakir: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Khalil Shakir: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 6,503 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Josh Allen: 3+ touchdowns (Protected) · Josh Allen: 3+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 5,604 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Ty Johnson: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Ty Johnson: 1+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 4,583 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Ty Johnson: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Ty Johnson: 2+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 4,499 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Aaron Jones Sr.: 1+ | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,480 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Justin Jefferson: 3+ touchdowns (Protected) · Justin Jefferson: 3+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,754 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Dalton Kincaid: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Dalton Kincaid: 2+ | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 3,707 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Mason: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Jordan Mason: 2+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,261 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Keon Coleman: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Keon Coleman: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,158 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Ben Yurosek: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Ben Yurosek: 1+ | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 2,945 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Odell Beckham Jr.: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Odell Beckham Jr.: 2+ | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,765 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Addison: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Jordan Addison: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,595 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jackson Hawes: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Jackson Hawes: 1+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 2,486 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| DJ Moore: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · DJ Moore: 2+ | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,412 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Aaron Jones Sr.: 2+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,288 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Tai Felton: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Tai Felton: 1+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 718 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Myles Price: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Myles Price: 1+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 687 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Ray Davis: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · Ray Davis: 1+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 635 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| BUF Bills D/ST: 1+ touchdowns (Protected) · BUF Bills D/ST: 1+ | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 373 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Aaron Jones Sr.: 3+ touchdowns (Protected) · Aaron Jones Sr.: 3+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 307 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Khalil Shakir: 2+ touchdowns (Protected) · Khalil Shakir: 2+ | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 239 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
| Jordan Mason: 3+ touchdowns (Protected) · Jordan Mason: 3+ | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 187 | Nov 12, 01:15 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 80 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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