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Netflix KPI on Kalshi
If Netflix, Inc. reports above 20000 total full-time employees in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix, Inc. report above 17500 total full-time employees in 2026? · Above 17500 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 5,009 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Netflix, Inc. report above 19000 total full-time employees in 2026? · Above 19000 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 3,384 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Netflix, Inc. report above 16500 total full-time employees in 2026? · Above 16500 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 3,118 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Netflix, Inc. report above 18000 total full-time employees in 2026? · Above 18000 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 1,504 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Netflix, Inc. report above 18500 total full-time employees in 2026? · Above 18500 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 1,314 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Netflix, Inc. report above 20000 total full-time employees in 2026? · Above 20000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 721 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Netflix, Inc. report above 17000 total full-time employees in 2026? · Above 17000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 709 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Netflix, Inc. report above 19500 total full-time employees in 2026? · Above 19500 | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 335 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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