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Netflix app downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Netflix app downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 92 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netflix app downloads for November 2026 be above 65 ? · Above 65 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 710 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Netflix app downloads for November 2026 be above 92 ? · Above 92 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Netflix app downloads for November 2026 be above 85.5 ? · Above 85.5 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Netflix app downloads for November 2026 be above 80 ? · Above 80 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Netflix app downloads for November 2026 be above 75 ? · Above 75 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Netflix app downloads for November 2026 be above 70 ? · Above 70 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Netflix app downloads for November 2026 be above 55.5 ? · Above 55.5 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Netflix app downloads for November 2026 be above 107.5 ? · Above 107.5 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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