What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 17¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.91.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 18% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 17%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

NHL 3rd Period Spread on Kalshi

If Philadelphia wins by more than 1.5 goals in the 3rd period (excluding overtime) of the Philadelphia vs Edmonton NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, NHL.

Market says (typical open contract)

17%

Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

34% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
17¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.91	18.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Philadelphia wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 goals	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	1,237	Nov 12, 02:30 UTC
Vancouver wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Vancouver wins by over 1.5 goals	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	449	Nov 12, 02:30 UTC
New York I wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · New York I wins by over 1.5 goals	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	290	Nov 12, 03:00 UTC
Philadelphia wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Philadelphia wins by over 1.5 goals	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Edmonton wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Edmonton wins by over 1.5 goals	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 02:00 UTC
Tampa Bay wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 goals	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
Buffalo wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Buffalo wins by over 1.5 goals	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:00 UTC
New York R wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · New York R wins by over 1.5 goals	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:30 UTC
Calgary wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Calgary wins by over 1.5 goals	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Nov 14, 00:30 UTC
Nashville wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Nashville wins by over 1.5 goals	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
Los Angeles wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Los Angeles wins by over 1.5 goals	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	0	Nov 13, 03:00 UTC
St. Louis wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · St. Louis wins by over 1.5 goals	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	0	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Detroit wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Detroit wins by over 1.5 goals	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	0	Nov 13, 01:00 UTC
Winnipeg wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Winnipeg wins by over 1.5 goals	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	0	Nov 13, 00:00 UTC
New Jersey wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · New Jersey wins by over 1.5 goals	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	0	Nov 13, 00:00 UTC
Florida wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Florida wins by over 1.5 goals	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
Columbus wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Columbus wins by over 1.5 goals	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 13, 00:30 UTC
Washington wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Washington wins by over 1.5 goals	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 13, 00:00 UTC
Ottawa wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Ottawa wins by over 1.5 goals	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	0	Nov 13, 00:00 UTC
Montreal wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Montreal wins by over 1.5 goals	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 13, 00:00 UTC
Minnesota wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Minnesota wins by over 1.5 goals	17¢	17%	1.0¢	—	34%	0	Nov 13, 00:00 UTC
Toronto wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Toronto wins by over 1.5 goals	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	0	Nov 13, 00:00 UTC
Colorado wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · Colorado wins by over 1.5 goals	21¢	21%	1.2¢	—	42%	0	Nov 13, 00:00 UTC
San Jose wins 3rd Period by over 1.5 goals · San Jose wins by over 1.5 goals	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	0	Nov 12, 03:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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