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NHL Game on Kalshi
If New York R wins the Montreal vs New York R NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL, ESPN.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 96 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
98% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose wins · San Jose | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 446,872 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| New York I wins · New York I | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 261,318 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Philadelphia wins · Philadelphia | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 161,826 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Vancouver wins · Vancouver | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 140,935 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| New Jersey wins · New Jersey | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 8,218 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins · Minnesota | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 6,161 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Nashville wins · Nashville | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 5,809 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Colorado wins · Colorado | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 4,424 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Toronto wins · Toronto | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 2,744 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Dallas wins · Dallas | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 2,086 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Carolina wins · Carolina | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,057 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Winnipeg wins · Winnipeg | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 1,669 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Boston wins · Boston | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 1,591 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Florida wins · Florida | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1,523 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| New York R wins · New York R | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 1,222 | Nov 16, 02:00 UTC |
| Los Angeles wins · Los Angeles | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 1,174 | Nov 13, 03:00 UTC |
| Detroit wins · Detroit | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 1,172 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Washington wins · Washington | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 1,157 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Montreal wins · Montreal | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 986 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Edmonton wins · Edmonton | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 937 | Nov 14, 02:00 UTC |
| Anaheim wins · Anaheim | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 558 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| San Jose wins · San Jose | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 521 | Nov 14, 03:00 UTC |
| Minnesota wins · Minnesota | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 504 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| St. Louis wins · St. Louis | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 497 | Nov 13, 01:00 UTC |
| Ottawa wins · Ottawa | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 448 | Nov 13, 00:00 UTC |
| Vegas wins · Vegas | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 447 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Buffalo wins · Buffalo | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 438 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Seattle wins · Seattle | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 423 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Ottawa wins · Ottawa | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 414 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Tampa Bay wins · Tampa Bay | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 371 | Nov 14, 00:00 UTC |
| Utah wins · Utah | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 361 | Nov 15, 02:00 UTC |
| New Jersey wins · New Jersey | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 330 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Utah wins · Utah | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 327 | Nov 14, 02:30 UTC |
| Columbus wins · Columbus | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 225 | Nov 13, 00:30 UTC |
| Boston wins · Boston | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 225 | Nov 17, 00:00 UTC |
| New Jersey wins · New Jersey | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 186 | Nov 17, 00:00 UTC |
| Chicago wins · Chicago | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 180 | Nov 15, 01:00 UTC |
| Dallas wins · Dallas | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 169 | Nov 17, 01:00 UTC |
| Colorado wins · Colorado | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 158 | Nov 15, 00:00 UTC |
| Calgary wins · Calgary | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 147 | Nov 14, 00:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 96 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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