Markets › Kalshi › Sports
Pro Hockey Points on Kalshi
If Tyler Toffoli records 3+ points in the New York I vs San Jose NHL game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NHL.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 102 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
95% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer: 1+ points · Matthew Schaefer: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 5,499 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Dmitry Orlov: 1+ points · Dmitry Orlov: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,681 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Smith: 2+ points · Will Smith: 2+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 3,593 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jamie Drysdale: 1+ points · Jamie Drysdale: 1+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 3,181 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Victor Eklund: 1+ points · Victor Eklund: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,898 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Bo Horvat: 1+ points · Bo Horvat: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,751 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Matvei Michkov: 1+ points · Matvei Michkov: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,624 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Macklin Celebrini: 2+ points · Macklin Celebrini: 2+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 2,206 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Travis Konecny: 1+ points · Travis Konecny: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,946 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Mason Marchment: 1+ points · Mason Marchment: 1+ | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,752 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Ty Dellandrea: 1+ points · Ty Dellandrea: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,750 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Adam Pelech: 1+ points · Adam Pelech: 1+ | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,733 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Ivar Stenberg: 1+ points · Ivar Stenberg: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,664 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brayden Schenn: 1+ points · Brayden Schenn: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,657 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Bo Horvat: 2+ points · Bo Horvat: 2+ | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,523 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jacob Trouba: 1+ points · Jacob Trouba: 1+ | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 1,381 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Simon Holmstrom: 1+ points · Simon Holmstrom: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,289 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Christian Dvorak: 1+ points · Christian Dvorak: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,151 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Kiefer Sherwood: 1+ points · Kiefer Sherwood: 1+ | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 916 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Jake DeBrusk: 1+ points · Jake DeBrusk: 1+ | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 869 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Macklin Celebrini: 1+ points · Macklin Celebrini: 1+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 852 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Michael Misa: 1+ points · Michael Misa: 1+ | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 850 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Tyler Toffoli: 1+ points · Tyler Toffoli: 1+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 791 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Trevor Zegras: 1+ points · Trevor Zegras: 1+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 582 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Tyler Toffoli: 2+ points · Tyler Toffoli: 2+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 579 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Bo Horvat: 3+ points · Bo Horvat: 3+ | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 548 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Christian Dvorak: 2+ points · Christian Dvorak: 2+ | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 526 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki: 2+ points · Jonathan Lekkerimäki: 2+ | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 495 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Brock Boeser: 2+ points · Brock Boeser: 2+ | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 337 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Porter Martone: 1+ points · Porter Martone: 1+ | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 310 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Kyle Palmieri: 1+ points · Kyle Palmieri: 1+ | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 300 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Macklin Celebrini: 3+ points · Macklin Celebrini: 3+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 271 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Will Smith: 1+ points · Will Smith: 1+ | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 201 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Brock Boeser: 1+ points · Brock Boeser: 1+ | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 198 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Anthony Duclair: 1+ points · Anthony Duclair: 1+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 195 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Matthew Schaefer: 2+ points · Matthew Schaefer: 2+ | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 178 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Kiefer Sherwood: 2+ points · Kiefer Sherwood: 2+ | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 153 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Victor Eklund: 2+ points · Victor Eklund: 2+ | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 117 | Nov 12, 03:00 UTC |
| Zeev Buium: 1+ points · Zeev Buium: 1+ | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 116 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
| Jake DeBrusk: 2+ points · Jake DeBrusk: 2+ | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 97 | Nov 12, 02:30 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 102 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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