Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Northern Ireland Assembly election winner on Kalshi
If the Ulster Unionist Party wins the next Northern Ireland Assembly election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Electoral Office for Northern Ireland.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
16% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.22 | 8.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sinn Féin win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election? · Sinn Féin | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 1 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will UUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election? · UUP | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will TUV win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election? · TUV | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will SDLP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election? · SDLP | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will DUP win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election? · DUP | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Alliance win the next Northern Ireland Assembly election? · Alliance | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | May 05, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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