What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 42¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.05.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 43% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 42%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Nicotine point of sale spend array on Kalshi

If the Carbon Arc Nicotine product point of sale spend array index (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 160, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Carbon Arc.

Market says (typical open contract)

42%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

83% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
42¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.03	43.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 130? · Above 130	93¢	93%	0.5¢	—	14%	20,873	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 125? · Above 125	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	15,687	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 120? · Above 120	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	11,028	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 115? · Above 115	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	6,244	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 150? · Above 150	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	1,448	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 135? · Above 135	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	83%	124	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 140? · Above 140	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	17	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 160? · Above 160	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 155? · Above 155	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 145? · Above 145	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	0	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC
Will Nicotine product point of sale spend array index for November 2026 be above 110? · Above 110	96¢	96%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Dec 03, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.