What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Nobel Peace Prize on Kalshi

If World Health Organization wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Nobel Prize organization.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 29 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Melania Trump	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	2,861	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Donald Trump	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	1,730	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · International Court of Justice	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	1,137	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Julian Assange	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	905	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Yulia Navalnaya	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	811	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Pope Leo XIV	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	747	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Doctors Without Borders	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	5%	703	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	582	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Save the Children	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	500	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Vanessa Nakate	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	500	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Parents Circle – Families Forum	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	500	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Jimmy Lai	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	366	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	19%	328	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · UNRWA	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	322	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Elon Musk	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	292	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Volodymyr Zelenskyy	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	280	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · International Criminal Court	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	244	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Francesca Albanese	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	235	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Minneapolis	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	167	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Committee to Protect Journalists	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	156	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Reporters Without Borders (RSF)	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · World Health Organization	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Imran Khan	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Greta Thunberg	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · David Attenborough	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC
Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize? · António Guterres	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Dec 31, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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