Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Nominal GDP growth in [year] on Kalshi
If the annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for calendar year 2036 is above 6.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
80%
Median YES price across 143 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
40% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 80¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $0.70 | 81.1% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 1,612 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 490 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 300 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5% | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 274 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2035 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0% | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 137 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 130 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2035 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5% | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 80 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2026 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 37 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2029 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5% | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 29 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2029 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 28 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2035 be above 0.5%? · Above 0.5% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 23 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2034 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0% | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 12 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 1.5%? · Above 1.5% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 10 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2034 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5% | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 9 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2034 be above 3.5%? · Above 3.5% | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 5 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 2.5%? · Above 2.5% | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 5 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2034 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0% | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 5 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 3.0%? · Above 3.0% | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 4 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 3.0%? · Above 3.0% | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 4 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 3 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 2.5%? · Above 2.5% | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 3 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2034 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 3 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2027 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 3 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2027 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5% | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 3 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0% | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 2 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2034 be above 0.5%? · Above 0.5% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 2 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 0.0%? · Above 0.0% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2035 be above 6.0%? · Above 6.0% | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 2 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 4.0%? · Above 4.0% | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 2 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2034 be above 0.0%? · Above 0.0% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 2 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2035 be above 0.0%? · Above 0.0% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 2.0%? · Above 2.0% | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 3.5%? · Above 3.5% | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2034 be above 2.5%? · Above 2.5% | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 5.5%? · Above 5.5% | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 1 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 3.5%? · Above 3.5% | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2036 be above 5.0%? · Above 5.0% | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 0 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2034 be above 4.5%? · Above 4.5% | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
| Will annual percent change in U.S. current-dollar gross domestic product for 2028 be above 0.5%? · Above 0.5% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Jan 28, 13:29 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 143 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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