What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Northstar snowfall on Kalshi

If the total snowfall recorded at Northstar California Resort October 1, 2026 through December 24, 2026 (value recorded at 4:00 PM ET on December 24) is above 90 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Northstar California Resort Snow & Weather Report, the New York Times, Vail Resorts, the Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Above 20 inches · Above 20 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	395	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 30 inches · Above 30 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	296	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 45 inches · Above 45 inches	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	56%	89	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 60 inches · Above 60 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	6	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 90 inches · Above 90 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 75 inches · Above 75 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 135 inches · Above 135 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 120 inches · Above 120 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 105 inches · Above 105 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.