Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Neptune insurance annual kpi on Kalshi
If Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. reports Above 330000 policies in force in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
89% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 44¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.96 | 45.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 360000 policies in force in fiscal 2026? · Above 360000 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 3,385 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 370000 policies in force in fiscal 2026? · Above 370000 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1,934 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 400000 policies in force in fiscal 2026? · Above 400000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,766 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 380000 policies in force in fiscal 2026? · Above 380000 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 405 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 390000 policies in force in fiscal 2026? · Above 390000 | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 155 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 330000 policies in force in fiscal 2026? · Above 330000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 340000 policies in force in fiscal 2026? · Above 340000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. report Above 350000 policies in force in fiscal 2026? · Above 350000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | May 27, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.