What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Nuevo León Governor winner on Kalshi

If Waldo Fernández González wins the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE), Instituto Estatal Electoral y de Participación Ciudadana de Nuevo León (IEEPCNL).

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

6% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Tatiana Clouthier Carrillo	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	4,275	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Waldo Fernández González win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Waldo Fernández González	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	1,534	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Mariana Rodríguez Cantú win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Mariana Rodríguez Cantú	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	703	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Andrés Mijes Llovera win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Andrés Mijes Llovera	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	675	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Clara Luz Flores Carrales win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Clara Luz Flores Carrales	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	28%	605	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Adrián de la Garza Santos	31¢	31%	1.5¢	—	62%	574	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Félix Arratia Cruz win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Félix Arratia Cruz	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	550	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	457	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Martha Herrera González win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Martha Herrera González	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	451	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Héctor García García win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Héctor García García	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	451	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will David de la Peña Marroquín win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · David de la Peña Marroquín	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	451	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Judith Díaz Delgado win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Judith Díaz Delgado	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	450	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Ivonne Liliana Álvarez García win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Ivonne Liliana Álvarez García	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	450	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Fernando Jesús Margáin Sada win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Fernando Jesús Margáin Sada	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	450	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Felipe de Jesús Cantú Rodríguez	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	450	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Alma Rosa Marroquín Escamilla	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	450	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Raúl Lozano Caballero win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Raúl Lozano Caballero	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	225	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Miguel Flores Serna win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Miguel Flores Serna	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	225	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Jesús Alberto Elizondo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Jesús Alberto Elizondo	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	225	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Daniel Carrillo Martínez win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Daniel Carrillo Martínez	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	225	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will César Garza Arredondo win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · César Garza Arredondo	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	225	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Carlos de la Fuente Flores win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Carlos de la Fuente Flores	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	225	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Arturo Salinas Garza win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Arturo Salinas Garza	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	225	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Annia Gómez Cárdenas win the 2027 Nuevo León gubernatorial election? · Annia Gómez Cárdenas	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	225	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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