Markets › Kalshi › Mentions
NVIDIA Mention on Kalshi
If Jensen Huang says TSMC as part of NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NVIDIA Corporation Investor Events.
Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
64% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 32¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.38 | 33.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Humanoid | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2,738 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Omniverse | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 1,523 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · China / Chinese | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 898 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Physical AI | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 487 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Event does not qualify | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 307 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · OpenShell | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 216 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · BlueField | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 210 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Hermes | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 170 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · DSX | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 113 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · CrowdStrike | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 105 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Cosmos | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 76 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Tariff | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 74 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · TSMC | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 73 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Trump | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 64 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Hyperscaler | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 10 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Gaming | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Minerva | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Jensen Huang say during NVIDIA GTC Washington, D.C. Keynote originally scheduled for December 1, 2026? · Google Cloud | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Dec 15, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.