Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Billionaires lost on Kalshi
If New York City has less than 122 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Forbes Media LLC.
Market says (typical open contract)
31%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
62% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 31¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.41 | 32.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many billionaires will New York City lose this year? · At least 3 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 60,400 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| How many billionaires will New York City lose this year? · At least 8 | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 15,003 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| How many billionaires will New York City lose this year? · At least 13 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 6,637 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| How many billionaires will New York City lose this year? · At least 1 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 4,679 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| How many billionaires will New York City lose this year? · At least 23 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2,722 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| How many billionaires will New York City lose this year? · At least 2 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 1,150 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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