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Court order pausing an NYC municipal grocery store on Kalshi

If a New York State court issues an order prohibiting, suspending, or pausing the opening or operation of at least one planned New York City municipal grocery store in Multicultural Business Coalition v. City of New York, Index Nos. 160693/2026 and 160694/2026, or a proceeding formally related to, consolidated with, transferred from, renumbering, succeeding, or reviewing either named matter and concerning the same requested relief before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: New York State Unified Court System.

Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
28% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
14¢ (now)0.8¢$3.0114.8%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 20264¢4%0.2¢—7%9,230Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 202714¢14%0.8¢—28%3,413Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will a court halt an NYC municipal grocery store before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 202714¢14%0.8¢—28%936Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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